Who Answers for Government Lies?
Judge Andrew Napolitano
Hillary on the Ropes
Judge Andrew Napolitano
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The migration of the secret email stream most likely constituted the crime of espionage -- the failure to secure and preserve the secrecy of confidential, secret or top-secret materials.
A Reaganesque Recipe to Reinvigorate China’s Economy?
The long-term trend in China is positive. Economic reforms beginning in the late 1970s have helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty.
And thanks to decades of strong growth, living standards for ordinary Chinese citizens are far higher than they used to be. There’s still quite a way to go before China catches up to western nations, but the numbers keep improving.
That being said, China’s economy has hit a speed bump. The stock market’s recent performance has been less than impressive and economic growth has faltered.
Is this the beginning of the end of the Chinese miracle?
If you asked me about six months ago, I would have expressed pessimism. The government was intervening in financial markets to prop up prices, and that was after several years of failed Keynesian-style spending programs that were supposed to “stimulate” growth.
But maybe my gloom was premature.
And thanks to decades of strong growth, living standards for ordinary Chinese citizens are far higher than they used to be. There’s still quite a way to go before China catches up to western nations, but the numbers keep improving.
That being said, China’s economy has hit a speed bump. The stock market’s recent performance has been less than impressive and economic growth has faltered.
Is this the beginning of the end of the Chinese miracle?
If you asked me about six months ago, I would have expressed pessimism. The government was intervening in financial markets to prop up prices, and that was after several years of failed Keynesian-style spending programs that were supposed to “stimulate” growth.
But maybe my gloom was premature.
Are Economists Useless, Despicable, and Loathsome People?
I spend a lot of time mocking statists, and with good reasons.
But since I’m an economist, maybe I should be careful about throwing stones.
Especially since, based on a fairly miserable track record, my profession lives in a big glass house.
So let’s take a closer look to see whether Shakespeare was wrong about which profession most deserved extermination.
We’ll start with a story from The Economist, which informs us that the IMF has a perfect record of failure when predicting recessions.
But since I’m an economist, maybe I should be careful about throwing stones.
Especially since, based on a fairly miserable track record, my profession lives in a big glass house.
So let’s take a closer look to see whether Shakespeare was wrong about which profession most deserved extermination.
We’ll start with a story from The Economist, which informs us that the IMF has a perfect record of failure when predicting recessions.
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,” John Kenneth Galbraith, an irreverent economist, once said.…The IMF publishes forecasts for 189 countries twice a year, in April and October, for the year in question and the following one.The Economisthas conducted an analysis of them from 1999 to 2014… Over the period, there were 220 instances in which an economy grew in one year before shrinking in the next. In its April forecasts the IMF never once foresaw the contraction looming in the next year. …Our random-number generator correctly forecast the start of a recession 18% of the time.
Clinton Embodies Washington’s Decadence
She breaks the rules and gets away with it every time. No wonder voters are fed up.
ENLARGE . Campaigning in Buena Park, Calif., May 25. Photo: Zuma Press
The most interesting thing Donald Trump has said recently isn’t his taunting of Hillary Clinton, it’s his comment to Bloomberg’s Joshua Green. Mr. Green writes: “Many politicians, Trump told me, had privately confessed to being amazed that his policies, and his lacerating criticism of party leaders, had proved such potent electoral medicine.” Mr. Trump seemed to “intuit,” Mr. Green writes, that standard Republican dogma on entitlements and immigration no longer holds sway with large swaths of the party electorate. Mr. Trump says he sees his supporters as part of “a movement.” What, Mr. Green asked, would the party look like in five years? “Love the question,” Mr. Trump replied. “Five, 10 years from now—different party. You’re going to have a worker’s party. A party of people that haven’t had a real wage increase in 18 years.”
My impression on reading this was that Mr. Trump is seeing it as a party of regular people, as the Democratic Party was when I was a child and the Republican Party when I was a young woman.
This is the first thing I’ve seen that suggests Mr. Trump is ideologically conscious of what he’s doing. It’s not just ego and orange hair, he suggests, it’s politically intentional.
Austrian Economics Is More than Free-Market Economics
Austrian Economics Is More than Free-Market Economics
Still, you can usually spot free market conclusions lurking in the background of Austrian work, and this raises important questions about how policy implications influence the development of theory. For example, is it possible that the need to justify free market policies distorts Austrian research? This is the argument made in a new collection of essays edited by Guinevere Nell, titled Austrian Theory & Economic Organization: Reaching Beyond Free Market Boundaries.
Why We Need a Recession
Why We Need a Recession
Public opinion is generally quite simple in regard to recession: upswings are generally welcomed, recessions are to be avoided. The “Austrians” are however at odds with this general consensus — we regard recessions as healthy and necessary. Economic downturns only correct the aberrations and excesses of a boom. The benefits of recessions include:
Three Reasons to Be Worried About the Economy
Three Reasons to Be Worried About the Economy
Despite our leader’s unwavering confidence in America’s fortunes, a quick peak under the hood reveals a pretty grim state of American commerce.
Where Negative Interest Rates Will Lead Us
Where Negative Interest Rates Will Lead Us
Demagoguery vs. Data on Employment in America
Demagoguery vs. Data on Employment in America
A sound economic analysis of the claim about job losses due to international trade should address two questions: First, is it true that the US has lost jobs due to trade (or other factors)? Second, is this phenomenon good or bad overall for the US and world economies?
On the first point, it can appear as though the US has lost jobs. For example, as Figure 1 shows, manufacturing employment in the US has declined by about 2 million from pre-Great Recession levels, and is down by over 7 million, or 37 percent, from the all-time high reached in 1979.
Central Banks Should Stop Paying Interest on Reserves
Central Banks Should Stop Paying Interest on Reserves
The academic catalyst to this change came from Milton Friedman’s essay “The Optimum Quantity of Money” where he argued that the opportunity cost of paper money (any foregoing of interest compared to on alternative money-like instruments such as savings deposits) should be equal to its virtually-zero marginal cost of production. Opportunity cost could indeed be brought down to zero if base money (bank reserves, currency) in large part paid interest at the market rate. Under the gold standard, the opportunity cost of holding base money largely in metallic form (gold coin) was indeed typically significant. All forms of base money paid no interest. And the stream of interest income foregone in terms of present value was equal in principle to the marginal cost of gold production (this was equal to the gold price).
Will North Korea and Cuba Ever Be Wealthy?
Switzerland Votes on "Free Lunch"
In early June, the Swiss will be called upon to make a historic decision. Switzerland is the first country worldwide to put the idea of an Unconditional Basic Income to a vote and the outcome of this referendum will set a strong precedent and establish a landmark in the evolution of this debate.
The Swiss public will have to approve or reject a change in the constitution that would allow for the introduction of an Unconditional Basic Income (UBI) or a preset, monthly minimum income to be paid out by the government to every adult and child in the country if their income falls below a specific threshold. Even though details of this proposal have been few and far between, the most commonly cited amount of this guaranteed income would be 2,500 Swiss Francs for adults and 625 francs for children. The architects of the proposal stress that this government-guaranteed payment, unlike the current benefit programs, will be entire “no questions asked”, i.e., it will not be means-tested and will apply to every person legally living in Switzerland.
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